By Fernando Vilela
The approval of Provisional Measure 1304/2025 signals more than regulatory adjustments — it represents a strategic redesign of Brazil’s energy policy, balancing supply security, oil monetization, and industrial ambition in clean energy.
In a recorded meeting at the Presidential Palace — released by the government’s communication office — President Lula stated that Petrobras “is more than an oil company” and “will become, over time, an energy company.” The message is clear: Brazil’s energy transition will not be rushed or imported; it will be state-driven, with oil revenues financing the new energy matrix.
The measure is expected to increase the royalty calculation base through a new reference-price formula, pressuring the economics of mature fields and post-salt assets while prioritizing fiscal stability. At the same time, it preserves distributed-generation rights, establishes a cap for the CDE, and enables financing for new gas pipelines via the Social Fund — reinforcing natural gas as an industrial pillar.
The government’s stance aligns with corporate movements betting on productivity, data, and technology as competitive advantages. This is not only about ecological transition; it is an industrial transition built on strategic asset control, local capability, and scale.
The challenge: balancing fiscal revenue, innovation, and investment attractiveness in a global cycle of more selective capital.
